Azerbaijan Done (Well Mostly)

These 59 projects took me about 3 hours total. Which isn't so bad. However I still have to code all the GDP/GNI/PCI/etc data from the years of completion. However the more tedious coding from the World Bank site is done for Azerbaijan; leaving me the other 5 countries to do and another couple hundred projects. Here's what my data is looking like:



I'm going to go work on book two of Gulag Archipelago now. Mind break time.

Project Coding Begins

Since I finished the rough stats yesterday, I decided to dig into project coding this morning. So much information, but I needed to start it so I could rewrite my project coding guide. Here's a quick look:

Data Data Data

So, I've started my base statistics for this project. Basically since I need a ton of data at my fingertips to complete my methodology of measuring various economic and social aspects at different points in time I've compiled a table of just that. Here's a preview!

Central Asia Class

In more graduate school news, I ended up with an "A" on my presentation. I've been neglegent about the news now so I must get back onto looking through all of it. I am starting the coding for the data this weekend, and with a few hundred projects I'm hoping to be able to finish it this month if I'm dilligent.

Tonight's Presentation

Giving my paper presentation tonight for my Central Asia class. Hopefully my data sets will be done soon!

Link to Presentation

Paper Outline

Since I have the pleasure of working on the data sets for the class I'm taking, here's the outline for the term paper that's a piece of this:

Rachel Stoll
Dr. Buckley
February 23, 2010

Central Asia and the World Bank in a Post-Cold War World: Trends in World Bank Funding of Transportation Infrastructure within Central Asia

I. Central Asia and the World Bank
a. 600 projects with CIS
b. CIS includes Central Asia
c. After collapse of USSR, IMF/WB take interest in CIS region
d. Discussion of previous development of transportation infrastructure
e. Rail usage in USSR
f. Types of projects being funded

II. Literature Review for Transportation impacts to Economic Development
a. Phillippe Aghion and Mark Schankerman
b. Feinburg and Meurs
c. Rietveld and Bruinsma

III. Functionalism discussion as it relates to security and development

IV. World Bank and Transit Infrastructure
a. Funding discussion
b. Private vs. Public
c. Movement of goods/services highly important

V. Dataset

VI. Dataset analysis

VII. Conclusion of data and paradigm (functionalism)

Central Asia Paper Presentation

Started the presentation for my Central Asia Paper this morning. ( Link) I cannot decide if I want to start my data analysis now or if I just want to present the concepts and theories associated. I am going the first day and it's two months prior to our papers being due.

Must start new research. I also think my numbers might be a little old since it's been a year. Will have to look them back up but the teacher isn't going to know that. They will be revised for the final paper for sure.

Paper Proposal for CIS

Since I'm taking a Central Asia politics course (for now, anyway) I've decided to finally get some of my data for this done in the class. For now I'm not even sure I'm going to be having a thesis thanks to some Graduate School Department issues that I am currently having. Anyway the proposal:


World Bank Funding of transportation infrastructure projects in Central Asia (Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) has led to more stability and development in the region than the other reforms and projects funded by the World Bank in the same region.

Since the fall of the USSR, the World Bank has funded approximately 600 projects within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) which includes the Central Asia Region. The current states in the CIS include: Russia, Georgia (currently separate from CIS), Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. For the purposes of this class, I would like to focus on the World Bank projects in Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Many of these infrastructure projects involve multiple countries, but more importantly this promotes connectivity and economic development throughout the region. Within a constructivist paradigm, these sorts of infrastructure projects that are more politically neutral and economically mutually beneficial are ideal for helping ensure peace and regional stability.

In order to explore the thesis above, I propose a statistically driven analysis of the World Bank projects in the region. By using data readily available and creating new data from the World Bank project website, the analysis will be time-lagged and seekign correlative relationships. With an expansive set of data and indicators placed three, five, and tens years out hopefully trends will be visible. Attached is the coding guide.

2004 Report on Infrastructure in Central Asia and Azerbaijan

My IR class this term is focused on Central Asia which means that I get to work on some of my research and get a term paper out of it. Since I'm writing my research proposal for the term over the weekend I've been looking at infrastructure reports in the region. I found an NBR Analysis on Infrastructure Challenges in Central Asia and Azerbaijan . Seems like a solid piece of research to include into my paper/literature review.

In my other class I've been working on Urban Politics, which is not quite in the scope of this blog. However, some interesting points about infrastructure and utilites have been made. I might post the one page summaries that we are assigned of the different books since most of them deal tangently with infrastructure or political economy.

The Spatial Political Economy of Urban Infrastructure Transformation by Roar Samuelsen

I found this paper while searching for something completely unrelated. It is on the political economy of infrastructure in a more urban setting.

The second aspect of urban infrastructure to be pointed out is that they are fixed supports for the time-space mobilities of capitalism. This means that they are the fixed part of capital, immobilized and spatially configured in order to facilitate greater movement of capital, commodities, information, labour, money and services.

Full Article Here

The paper as a whole is a little technical and deals with more urban areas, but I thought it was relevant to the discussion of what infrastructure is and its role in a capitalistic society.

Russia-Belarus Oil Agreement

A little bit of news on an oil-supply agreement and some pipleline news. Not necessarily transit related, but infrastructure none the less.

Russia and Belarus reached an oil supply agreement in Moscow on Wednesday, ending the threat of disruptions in European deliveries that arose when a previous deal lapsed at the end of last year. Russia announced that the two sides had signed documents that covered the sale of Russian oil to Belarus and the piping of Russian oil through Belarus for other European customers.

Source

News: World Bank and Structural Readjustments

Classes have once again started for me, and the topic of IMF/WB loans came up last week. Nevermind how class actually went though. Anyway, with all the focus right now being on Haiti there is really not much news coming out about E.Europe/Central Asia. There was some information on loans that was posted a couple of days ago:

Reflecting pre-existing vulnerabilities in many countries (in particular current account deficits arising from large private sector savings-investment imbalances), developing Europe and Central Asia was hardest hit by the crisis, with GDP falling by an estimated 6.2 percent in 2009. Although GDP is projected to rise by 2.7 percent in 2010 and 3.6 percent in 2011, growth rates in most economies will remain below potential and unemployment and bank restructuring will continue to be pervasive. Much higher non-performing loans, higher interest rates and weak international capital flows will remain key challenges in the near term. Compared to the pre-crisis period, high non-performing loans, weak public finances and low international capital flows are likely to dampen investment growth in many countries. Moreover, significant downside risks persist, including the possibility of a double-dip recession or increased financial difficulties for banks in the region. Despite better international financing conditions and domestic adjustments, the region’s external financing needs are expected to exceed inflows by as much as $54 billion in 2010.

source

Press Release: Improved Logistics

The World Bank issued a press release on January 15th talking about the improved logistics of trade. This is good news and should encourage more investment in developing nations.

According to the study, logistics performance is heavily influenced by the quality of public sector institutions and the effective coordination of border clearance processes among all border management agencies. In this area, customs performs better than many other agencies, pointing to the need for border management reforms. In low performing countries, on average, half of the containers are physically inspected and one container out of seven at least twice.



Other areas for improvement include better transport policies, increasing competition in trade-related services such as trucking, freight forwarding and railways; and better trade-related infrastructure. For many low-income countries the most binding constraints are often in logistics services and international transit systems. Given they perform better on many other indicators, improving trade infrastructure is often reported to be a priority for middle-income countries.



The World Bank Group has a number of projects designed to improve trade logistics in developing countries. The US$250 million East Africa Trade and Transport Facilitation Project improved the corridor infrastructure and upgraded the main border crossing between Uganda and Kenya at Malaba, reducing border crossing times from three days to three hours. In Tunisia, a US$250 million operation is improving competitiveness by reducing trade costs and streamlining border clearance procedures. And in Afghanistan, the Bank is providing funding for a US$31.2 million project to modernize and computerize four major border crossings, increasing customs revenues from US$50 million when the project started in 2004 to over US$399 million in 2008.

Better transportation policies, tarriffs, and more funding of infrastructure seem to be working pretty well. What's interesting is that the release mentions that infrastructure is a middle-income country improvement. It would be interesting to see the impacts of transportation infrastructure in transition economies. Oh wait. I'm doing that.

Source, with graphs

Haiti Earthquake

So if you haven't heard about the earthquate in Haiti you're probably not reading this blog. NYT ran a piece today about how there is aid but it can't be distributed effectively due to infrastructure issues and communication system failures.

Everything thinks about infrastructure (roads/trains) in natural disasters because they are usually broken down in the events. What I think gets missed is that bad infrastructure planning, development, and funding is a huge issue daily for some nations.

Here's hoping the disaster in Haiti is being handled efficiently and with enough humanitarian aid and forces.

Russian Federation Projects

These are the current active projects:



These are the projects in the proposal stage:



Very little in terms of infrastructure, but the Monthly Operation Report for the Federation has a little more. Most of them are exterior to the CIS or in rail transportation though. The waterway projects do stand out at me though. Maybe I'm missing the point with roads?

Other Projects

Things have been slow in the CIS project world with the UN being focused on climate change. A couple of projects outside of my thesis area that were approved for new or additional funding: Yemen and Sri Lanka.

Hopefully with some additional time I can start on the meat of my thesis- data coding.

News: Gaidar dies.

"He began his career in a branch of the Soviet planning bureaucracy examining ways to revitalize the country’s creaking command economy.

But as finance minister he abandoned the idea of instituting gradual reforms of the type he had been studying. Instead, in charge of one of the great blank slates of economic history after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he decided to move quickly to liberalize prices and begin privatizing state industry."

Full article here

News: New Gas Pipeline

More infrastructure news, just not about roads out of the NY Times. New Gas Pipeling From Central Asia Feeds China. Looks like a new alignment brings gas into China without going through Russia.

This is more important for the development news community.

News: Asian railway integration gains momentum at UN-backed meetings

World Bank news about a railway that might go through Tajikistan and other Asia/Central Asia nations.

Asian railway integration gains momentum at UN-backed meetings

News: Corruption/Graft still Issue in Russia and China

The New York Times ran an article a few days ago about the corruption in Russia and China. Russia ranked 146th most corrupt out of 180 countries. China was in the 70's.

Less corruption is usually due to more oversight and government openness, but not always. More information and full article here.